2023 Vezina Trophy Predictions

As the 2021-22 NHL season came to a close there was one obvious choice for which goalie should win the Vezina: Igor Shesterkin. Shesterkin put up incredible numbers, .935 save percentage, 2.07 goals against average (GAA) and 34.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx)(per MoneyPuck) in 53 games, while carrying the New York Rangers all the way to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. His GSAx was almost 6 goals ahead of the next best, who just so happened to be the well-considered best goalie in the league (maybe the world), Andrei Vasilevskiy. While Vasilevskiy may have won the trophy in 2019 and back to back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, he was not a finalist for the Vezina this year.

Instead, Juuse Saros, of the Nashville Predators, and Jacob Markstrom, of the Calgary Flames, were the other two finalists for this award last season. Saros put up a .918 save percentage, 2.64 GAA, and 20.7 GSAx in 67 games. Markstrom finished with a .922 save percentage, 2.22 GAA, and 10.8 GSAx in 63 games.

Image: 2021-22 final voting for the Vezina trophy

All three of last years finalists are top candidates going into the 22-23 season to win this years Vezina, with Shesterkin being the favorite. However, I believe that the Carolina Hurricanes Frederik Andersen will be the winner this year. Andersen's numbers were right up there with the 3 finalists last season (.922 save percentage, 2.17 GAA, and 27.8 GSAx in 52 games). He was sidelined from the last few games of the regular season and the playoffs with a torn MCL, however he appears to be fully recovered and ready to have another Vezina-caliber season.

I believe two of Shesterkin, Markstrom, and Saros could be the other finalists alongside Andersen. All three appear to have improved defenses in front of them, which should make their jobs slightly easier. My two underdog picks for finalists are Jake Oettinger and Ilya Sorokin. Sorokin and the Islanders had a brutal start to last season that they were just never able to recover from, earning him only 26 wins in 52 starts. He had fantastic underlying numbers though so if the team in front of him can gather a few more wins, Sorokin's name could start popping up more. Oettinger had 30 wins in 46 starts last season, but he became well known after having one of the most incredible single-series playoff performances in the first round. If Oettinger can even come close to repeating that performance for a full season it will be nearly impossible to not give him the award.

Who do you think will win the Vezina?